# Anthropic pre-IPO perps: long xyz / Entropy, short OKX / Binance

One company, four venues, different prices. On a per-share basis, OKX and Binance are about 19.5–21% more expensive than xyz; Entropy, converted under its own listing rule (revised 11/3), is about 2% cheaper per share than xyz. These gaps are not a disagreement about valuation. They come from different denominators, and they are forced to converge after the listing.

- **+20.8%** OKX premium per share vs xyz (at 12.7B post-offering shares)
- **+19.5%** Binance premium per share vs xyz
- **12.5–12.9B** Post-offering share count OKX and Binance are expected to use (incl. IPO new shares)
- **+23.0%** Locked-in return, short OKX / long Entropy (Entropy at ~16.7B shares)
- **15.34B** Break-even (long xyz): the share count the exchanges would need to use before this loses money
## Summary

1. One company, four venues, two prices. On a per-share basis, OKX and Binance are about 19.5–21% more expensive than trade.xyz (xyz:ANT on Hyperliquid), while Entropy (io:ANTH on Hyperliquid), converted under its own listing rule, is about 2% cheaper per share than xyz. See the spread chart ↓
2. These gaps are not a disagreement about valuation; the denominators differ. OKX and Binance imply a valuation of about $1.61–1.63T; xyz, multiplied by the fully diluted share count, implies $1.76–1.80T. Both are in the same range. But before listing, the OKX and Binance contracts will be converted to a per-share price using post-offering shares outstanding (about 12.5–12.9B shares, incl. IPO new shares) , and spreading that valuation over the fully diluted count gives only $101–108 per share. Section 3 →
3. Which share count the exchanges will use is supported by two kinds of evidence: the rule text and real precedents. Both venues' rules say they make a one-time adjustment to the "actual total share count" disclosed in the prospectus. At the SpaceX listing, both used shares outstanding excluding options and RSUs , even though SpaceX had about 645M options and RSUs at the time. OKX used the pre-offering count then only because the new-share count had not yet been disclosed; for Oura, where the prospectus gave all the numbers at once, both used the post-offering count. This note assumes both use the post-offering count (about 12.7B). Other precedents →
4. After listing, all three venues switch to the real Nasdaq price, and the spread is forced to converge. After the SpaceX listing, the three venues stayed broadly within ±0.5%. Section 7 →
5. The trade: long on xyz or Entropy, short on OKX and Binance, share-matched (not 1:1 in dollars). With both exchanges at about 12.7B post-offering shares: long xyz locks in about 19.5–21% (short OKX 20.8%, short Binance 19.5%); long Entropy locks in about 23% . Safety margin: long xyz only loses if the exchanges' conversion share count reaches about 15.34B, about 19% above the expected 12.5–12.9B; long Entropy only loses at about 15.6B. Section 8 →
6. Why Entropy is cheaper: after listing it quotes "share price × fixed share count ÷ 1B". From 11/3, the fixed share count is taken directly from the figure the company prints in the prospectus, "Total Class A and Class N Common Stock (As-Converted, Fully Diluted)", which is currently blank. Using 9/30 data it is estimated at about 16.6–16.8B (midpoint about 16.7B, essentially unchanged from the old basis), close to the company's fully diluted count. But the market currently prices it as if the count were about 16.4B, so each Entropy unit will convert into more shares after listing. The cost is rule risk: Entropy changed its share-count rule three times in one week (10/30, 10/31, 11/3), and it sets its own rules; however, the 11/3 version cites the prospectus figure directly, which leaves little room for further changes. Rule text · Risks →

### Current spread: OKX and Binance converted at 12.7B shares, Entropy at ~16.7B shares, vs xyz per share

Hourly closes; xyz:ANT launched on the evening of 10/26. OKX per share = price × 10B ÷ 12.7B; Binance per share = price × 1B ÷ 12.7B (about 12.3B pre-offering + about 400M IPO new shares); Entropy per share = price × 1B ÷ 16.73B (working midpoint, used until the prospectus total is published; historical data uses the same basis for comparability).

## What each venue's contract represents

| Venue | Contract | What one contract represents | Price | Implied valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| trade.xyz | xyz:ANT | Price of 1 share of Anthropic Class A common stock | $106.21 | Depends on the share count used; see Section 3 |
| OKX | ANTHROPIC-USDT-SWAP | Valuation ÷ 10B (OKX's assumed share count) | $162.93 | $1.629T |
| Binance | ANTHROPICUSDT | Valuation ÷ 1B (Binance's assumed share count) | $1,611.80 | $1.612T |
| Entropy | io:ANTH | Each $1 = $1B of fully diluted valuation ; after listing, converted to per share using a fixed share count (about 16.7B) | $1,745.1 | $1.745T |

**trade.xyz · Pre-IPO specification index (ANT row) Source [1]**

> ANT references 1 share of Anthropic, PBC Class A common stock (Nasdaq: ANT), quoted in USD. ANT is currently a pre-IPO market reflecting the anticipated share price; upon the underlying listing, it is expected to convert to a standard XYZ perpetual.

ANT tracks 1 share of Anthropic Class A common stock, quoted in USD. The spec sheet also states: expected listing date 2026-11-20, grace period of up to 60 days (to 2027-01-19), and a pre-IPO funding rate multiplier of 0.005 (1% of normal).

**OKX · Pre-IPO perpetual product rules Source [3]**

> OKX Pre-IPO contracts use a per-share pricing convention — contract price × the underlying company's total share count ≈ market cap. … Once the company publicly discloses its actual total share count , OKX executes a rebase … rebase_ratio = publicly disclosed actual share count / OKX's estimated share count .

The contract is quoted per share: contract price × total share count ≈ market cap. Once the company publicly discloses its actual total share count, OKX performs one rebase with ratio = actual share count ÷ OKX's estimated share count. After that, 1 contract = 1 share, with no further adjustment except for splits and reverse splits.

**Binance · ANTHROPICUSDT listing announcement + pre-IPO contract pricing FAQ Source [5] [6]**

> Estimated Share Count: 1 billion shares … The actual total share count may differ from the estimated share count and the Contract Size will be adjusted accordingly. If the share count disclosed in an updated S-1/A filing differs from the estimated share count by 3% or more, Binance will adjust …

Binance adjusts the contract size to the share count disclosed in the S-1/A, with no adjustment if the difference is under 3%. The FAQ gives "the night before listing" as the usual timing; for SpaceX it actually happened two days before listing, before pricing (see the timeline ).

**OKX · 6/25 announcement: rebase of ANTHROPICUSDT on 6/30 (1B → 10B) Source [4]**

> Important: this rebase is unrelated to …Anthropic's actual share capital. Once the relevant companies formally file their S-1 prospectus with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and disclose their actual total share capital, OKX will separately execute a rebase based on the actual share capital (so that 1 contract corresponds to 1 share) , which will be announced separately.

OKX's "10B" and Binance's "1B" are only accounting units; they do not represent the company's real share count.

## Why a 20–30% spread: similar valuations, different denominators

A company has several "total share counts", and the bases differ a lot. Multiplying xyz's per-share price by different counts:

| Basis | Shares | xyz $106.21 × shares = valuation |
|---|---|---|
| Post-offering shares outstanding (the basis used for exchange conversion) | ~12.5–12.9B | ~$1.35T |
| Entropy's fully diluted basis (from 11/3 = the total printed in the prospectus) | ~16.6–16.8B | ~$1.76–1.78T |
| The company's own fully diluted basis | 16.937B | ~$1.80T |

OKX and Binance prices correspond to about $1.61–1.63T , close to the fully diluted basis ($1.76–1.80T), far above the shares-outstanding basis (about $1.35T), and within the valuation range reported in the media ($1.5–2T). In other words:

- Traders on CEXs are quoting a fully diluted valuation. This is also the convention in private funding rounds and media reports; Anthropic's $965B post-money valuation in its Series H in May was on a fully diluted basis (see Section 5 ).
- But before listing, the contracts will be converted to per-share prices using post-offering shares outstanding : $1.629T ÷ 12.7B shares ≈ $128.3/share , 20.8% above xyz.

### Valuation implied by market prices ($T)

OKX, Binance: price × each venue's assumed share count (OKX 1B before 6/30, 10B after). xyz: per-share price × 16.937B (company fully diluted). Reference lines: Series H post-money $0.965T (5/28); media-reported IPO valuation $1.5–2T.

### The same valuation, divided by different denominators

OKX implied valuation $1.63T ÷ share count under each basis = per-share price. The dashed line is the current xyz price, $106.21.

This is where the spread comes from: the same valuation divided by a smaller denominator.

## Terms

- Shares outstanding : shares that actually exist and are registered to holders, including common stock held by founders and employees and investors' preferred stock (which converts automatically into common at the IPO). The exchanges' "actual total share count" is this number.
- Options : a right granted to employees to buy shares at a fixed low price (Anthropic's average is $2.89). Until exercised, the shares do not exist.
- RSUs (restricted stock units) : a company promise to give employees shares free once conditions are met. Before vesting, employees hold only a promise and the shares do not exist. Anthropic's RSUs only begin vesting at the IPO.
- Fully diluted share count : shares outstanding + all options + all RSUs (sometimes also the reserved share pool and convertible notes). It assumes every potential share becomes a real share, so the number is larger. Private valuations are usually on this basis.

Options and RSUs are "shares that may exist in the future", not "shares that exist now", so the exchanges exclude them when converting on a shares-outstanding basis.

## Anthropic's share capital (from the S-1 prospectus)

The S-1 was filed on 2026-10-26, with financial data as of 6/30. Common stock is adjusted for the 10-for-1 split on 9/17; preferred stock converts at 1:10.

### Share structure: at listing vs company fully diluted

| ① Outstanding before listing | Shares | S-1 source |
|---|---|---|
| Class A common | 2.157B | Balance sheet: 2,157,398 thousand shares |
| Class N common | 31M | Balance sheet: 30,643 thousand shares |
| Preferred converted to common (Series A–H) | 8.560B | 853,394 thousand shares × 10 (Series D at 10.4–10.6) |
| Public Benefit Fund initial issuance | 847M | 846,840,960 shares |
| Amazon convertible notes converted at listing | ~510M | 1.840B in full, subject to the 12% ownership cap |
| Time-vested RSUs settled at listing (net of tax) | ~100–400M | Blank in S-1; estimate |
| Total before listing | ~12.1–12.5B |  |
| + IPO new shares | ~400M | Blank in S-1; estimated at 300–500M |
| Exchange basis (post-offering) | ~12.5–12.9B | Same for OKX and Binance |

| ② Company fully diluted (6/30) | Shares | S-1 source |
|---|---|---|
| Common + converted preferred | 10.748B | = first three rows of ① |
| Amazon convertible notes, fully converted | 1.840B | 1,840,444,962 shares; conversion prices $2.09 / $5.05 |
| Outstanding options | 1.797B | 1,797,066 thousand shares; average exercise price $2.89 |
| Outstanding RSUs | 1.050B | 1,049,631 thousand shares; unvested before listing |
| Equity pool, not yet granted | ~570M | Summed from the notes, item by item |
| Reserved for donation matching program | ~930M | Summed from the notes, item by item |
| Fully diluted total | 16.937B | Matches the 5% back-calculation |
| Public Benefit Fund 847M | Not included | The 5% is on the base before that issuance |

**Anthropic S-1 · Public Benefit Fund initial issuance Source [7]**

> we contributed 846,840,960 shares of our Class N common stock, representing 5% of our fully diluted shares as of June 30, 2026 (assuming full conversion of the Amazon Notes) …

847M shares ÷ 5% = 16.937B shares, which is the company's own fully diluted count. Note that this is the base before the Public Benefit Fund issuance : 16.937B does not itself include those 847M, but it does include full conversion of the Amazon convertible notes (1.840B) and all reserved shares (about 1.5B).

How ① and ② differ: ① is shares outstanding at listing. It includes the 847M Public Benefit Fund shares, and for Amazon only the portion that can convert within the 12% ownership cap (about 510M). ② is the company's fully diluted count as of 6/30. It excludes the Public Benefit Fund, but includes Amazon in full, options, RSUs and about 1.5B of reserves. Entropy's basis sits between the two: from 11/3 it uses the total in the prospectus's "The Offering" table, made up of post-offering shares outstanding + options (net, under the treasury stock method) + RSUs + Amazon in full + adjustments such as vested matching shares, the Pledge and acquisitions, excluding ungranted reserves . On 9/30 data this is estimated at about 16.6–16.8B, close to ② ( rule text ).

The Series H valuation is also fully diluted: the Series H price was $589.01/share, or $58.90 after the split; the official post-money valuation of $965B ÷ $58.90 = 16.38B shares, close to the fully diluted basis and far above shares outstanding (on a shares-outstanding basis it would be only about $713B).

## Which share count the exchanges will use: rule text + real precedents

### Rule text

OKX's rule says "actual total share count" and performs one rebase at "actual share count ÷ estimated share count" ( text ); Binance's says "the amount disclosed in S-1/A", with no adjustment for a difference under 3% ( text ). Across all of both venues' pre-IPO contract announcements and rules, "fully diluted" has never appeared, and including options or RSUs has never been mentioned. For how the prospectus itself words this, see the prospectus text comparison below.

### Real precedent: SpaceX (June 2026)

### SpaceX had options and RSUs; neither exchange counted them

SpaceX prospectus: 12.520B shares outstanding (as of 3/31, including 1.302B unvested restricted shares held by Musk); S-1/A amendment 2 states 7,380,196,910 Class A shares post-offering (7,463,530,243 with the greenshoe), i.e. 556M IPO new shares and 83M greenshoe; 492M outstanding options and 129M RSUs (with a further 24M granted later). OKX's 12.52B = shares outstanding; Binance's 13.08B = shares outstanding + IPO new shares, excluding the greenshoe; neither counted options or RSUs. Anthropic's IPO new shares and greenshoe have not been disclosed: the S-1 states the offering includes sales by existing holders (secondary sales do not add shares), and new shares are estimated at about 400M (300–500M).

**OKX · 6/1 announcement: SpaceX rebase Source [8]**

> Actual total share count (disclosed in S-1) | 12.52 billion | ratio 12.52 … Except in the event of a stock split or reverse split … no further rebase will be performed on this contract.

Exactly the 12.520B shares outstanding, excluding the 645M options and RSUs.

**Binance · 6/8 announcement: SpaceX contract size adjustment Source [9]**

> Revised Estimated Share Count | 13.08 billion shares … based on the amount disclosed in S-1/A … Adjustment Scale Factor | 1.10

= 12.520B shares outstanding + IPO new shares (excluding the greenshoe), again excluding options and RSUs.

SpaceX had about 645M options and RSUs at the time, and neither venue counted them. That shows this was a basis the exchanges chose , not a consequence of there being no options or RSUs. Also, SpaceX's 12.520B included Musk's 1.3B restricted shares that were unvested but legally outstanding . By the same logic, Anthropic's 847M Public Benefit Fund shares (legally outstanding) will be counted too; our 12.1–12.5B estimate already includes them.

### Prospectus text comparison: how the share count was filled in step by step

SpaceX filed four versions of its prospectus. The same sentence, "the number of shares outstanding after this offering is based on X shares", was entirely blank in the first version and was then filled in two steps: first the pre-listing shares outstanding (OKX used this), then the IPO new shares and the post-offering count (Binance used this) . Every version explicitly states that options, RSUs and reserved shares are "not included". Anthropic has so far filed the first version, with blanks in exactly the same places as SpaceX.

**5/20 SpaceX S-1 · First version: all blank Source [13]**

> The number of shares of our Class A and Class B common stock that will be outstanding after this offering is based on ___ shares of Class A common stock and ___ shares of Class B common stock outstanding as of March 31, 2026 …

Shares after this offering are based on ___ Class A and ___ Class B shares outstanding as of 3/31. The numbers are blank.

**6/1 SpaceX S-1/A amendment 1 · Shares outstanding filled in for the first time → OKX used this Source [14]**

> The number of shares of our Class A and Class B common stock that will be outstanding after this offering is based on 6,824,641,355 shares of Class A common stock and 5,695,668,265 shares of Class B common stock outstanding as of March 31, 2026 , after giving effect to (i) the Class C Reclassification and (ii) the Preferred Conversion. The amount of Class B common stock that will be outstanding after this offering includes 1,302,072,285 restricted shares of Class B common stock issued to and held of record by Mr. Musk …

Based on 6.825B Class A + 5.696B Class B shares outstanding as of 3/31 (after the preferred conversion). Class B includes 1.302B unvested restricted shares held by Musk. 6.825 + 5.696 = 12.520B, exactly the 12.52B OKX announced that day and used for the rebase the next day ( OKX announcement ). The IPO new-share count was still blank in this version.

**6/3 SpaceX S-1/A amendment 2 · IPO new shares and post-offering count filled in → Binance used this Source [15]**

> Class A common stock offered by us … 555,555,555 shares (or 638,888,888 shares if the underwriters exercise their option to purchase additional shares of Class A common stock in full). Class A common stock outstanding immediately after this offering … 7,380,196,910 shares (or 7,463,530,243 shares if the underwriters exercise their option …). Class B common stock outstanding immediately after this offering … 5,695,668,265 shares.

The company issues 556M new shares (639M with the greenshoe); post-offering, 7.380B Class A and 5.696B Class B. 7.380 + 5.696 = 13.076B (excluding the greenshoe), the 13.08B Binance used for its 6/10 adjustment ( Binance announcement ). The final 424B4 prospectus on 6/12 had the same numbers as this version ( Source [16] ).

**Every version SpaceX prospectus · List of what the post-offering count "does not reflect" (excerpt from S-1/A amendment 2) Source [15]**

> Unless otherwise noted, common stock outstanding after the offering and other information based thereon in this prospectus does not reflect any of the following: • 133,793,640 shares of Class A common stock and 358,169,015 shares of Class B common stock … issuable upon the exercise of outstanding stock options … • 128,455,370 shares of Class A common stock and 931,450 shares of Class B common stock … issuable upon the vesting and settlement of restricted stock units … (none of which will vest in connection with this offering); • 23,842,920 shares … RSUs granted after March 31, 2026 … • 299,256,055 shares of Class A common stock reserved for issuance under the A&R 2024 Plan …

The post-offering count does not include : 492M outstanding options, 129M outstanding RSUs, 24M RSUs granted after 3/31, and 299M reserved under the incentive plan. Both exchanges' numbers match the basis after these exclusions.

**10/26 Anthropic S-1 · The same sentence, numbers still blank (the S-1/A will fill them in) Source [7]**

> The number of shares of our Class A common stock, Class N common stock, Class T common stock, and Class F common stock that will be outstanding after this offering is based on ___ shares of our Class A common stock, ___ shares of our Class N common stock, one share of our Class T common stock, and one share of our Class F common stock outstanding as of September 30, 2026 , which reflects: • the automatic conversion of … redeemable convertible preferred stock into shares of Class A common stock … and … into shares of Class N common stock … (the “ Preferred Stock Conversion ”); • the conversion of $ ___ in aggregate principal amount of our outstanding convertible promissory notes into ___ shares of Class N common stock … issuable to Amazon Web Services, Inc. … without causing it to exceed the applicable ownership cap ; • the Initial Public Benefit Issuance, the shares of which (i) are considered legally outstanding …; and • the net issuance of shares of Class A common stock subject to RSUs for which the service-based vesting condition was satisfied … after giving effect to the withholding of shares … to satisfy the associated estimated tax withholding … (the “RSU Settlement”).

Based on ___ Class A and ___ Class N shares outstanding as of 9/30 , which already include: the preferred conversion, conversion of the Amazon convertible notes up to the ownership cap , the Public Benefit Fund shares ( legally outstanding ), and net-of-tax settlement of time-vested RSUs. These are exactly the components of the "outstanding" table in Section 5.

**10/26 Anthropic S-1 · The "exclude" list Source [7]**

> The shares … outstanding as of September 30, 2026 exclude the following: • shares … issuable upon the exercise of options … outstanding as of September 30, 2026 …; • shares … issuable upon the vesting and settlement of RSUs … for which (i) the service-based vesting condition was not satisfied …; • shares … issued after September 30, 2026 in connection with our acquisitions …; and • shares … reserved for future issuance under our equity compensation plans …

Shares outstanding do not include : outstanding options, RSUs whose service condition is not met, shares issued for acquisitions after 9/30, and shares reserved under the incentive plans. Same structure as SpaceX's "does not reflect" list.

Putting it together: both exchanges used the numbers from this sentence in the prospectus, and the prospectus itself says this number excludes options, RSUs and reserved shares. Once Anthropic's S-1/A fills in the blanks, both should map to the post-offering count (about 12.5–12.9B): Binance's rule uses post-offering by design; OKX used post-offering directly for Oura, and used pre-offering for SpaceX only because the new-share count had not yet been disclosed (see other precedents below). Note that Anthropic's reference date is 9/30 , while the breakdown in Section 5 uses the 6/30 statements, so the filled-in numbers may differ slightly.

### Other precedents: pre-IPO contracts after SpaceX show OKX does not exclude new shares

Going through all pre-IPO announcements from both venues: SpaceX is the only case where a rebase was actually done on share count . For the others, the prospectus already had full share counts at launch, or the change was within the threshold and needed no adjustment. But they reveal one key point: OKX used the pre-offering count for SpaceX because the new-share count had not been disclosed when it acted, not because its basis excludes new shares.

SpaceX's sequence, disclosing the pre-offering count first and the offering size a few days later, is itself unusual. In a sample of 33 large US IPOs from 2024–2026, about 30 left the original S-1 blank and then filled in pre-offering, new and post-offering counts all at once in the S-1/A with the price range. Only SpaceX (2 days apart) and Waystar (2024, 12 days apart) disclosed in two steps.

| Name | Prospectus | OKX | Binance | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | S-1 blank → S-1/A amendment 1 gave only pre-offering 12.520B (offering size blank) → amendment 2 gave post-offering 13.076B | Announced 2.6 hours after amendment 1, executed the next day, using pre-offering 12.52B | Announced 4.7 days after amendment 2, executed 6.5 days after, using post-offering 13.08B | The only time both venues adjusted on share count |
| Oura (OURA) | 9/21 S-1/A gave everything at once : pre-offering 307,445,459 + 13.5M new shares = post-offering 320,945,459 | Listed 9/23, using 320,945,459 (post-offering, incl. new shares) directly | Listed 9/23, also about 321M (post-offering) | Listed 30 minutes apart, with identical share counts |
| Quantinuum (QNTX) | 5/26 S-1/A amendment 1: post-offering 253,937,247; 6/5 final prospectus 260,970,737 | Not listed | Listed 5/29 using the S-1/A post-offering 253.9M; final +2.8%, below the 3% threshold, not adjusted ; converted to a regular perp on 6/4 | A real case of Binance's 3% threshold |

Implication for Anthropic: OKX's rule only says "actual total share count" and does not exclude IPO new shares; when the prospectus gives all the numbers (Oura), it used the post-offering count, the same as Binance. So this note models both OKX and Binance at the post-offering count (about 12.7B) . Exception scenario: if Anthropic's first S-1/A with numbers fills in only the pre-offering count with the offering size blank, as SpaceX's amendment 1 did, and OKX again executes within hours, it would rebase at about 12.3B pre-offering, and the short-OKX return would be about 4 percentage points higher . That deviation is in our favor and is not included in the base case. In both cases, the exchanges will not count options, RSUs or unconverted convertible notes, so the core spread is unchanged.

### Summary of each venue's basis

| Venue | Which number | Expected shares | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| OKX | The actual total share count disclosed in the prospectus; announced within hours of seeing it, executed the next day. Expected at the post-offering count, the same as Binance (Oura precedent); SpaceX used pre-offering only because the new-share count was not yet disclosed ( other precedents ) | ~12.5–12.9B Exception: ~12.1–12.5B if only pre-offering is given | SpaceX: 12.520B from S-1/A amendment 1; Oura: 321M post-offering |
| Binance | Post-offering count from the S-1/A (incl. IPO new shares, excl. greenshoe), no adjustment under 3%; for SpaceX, executed after the S-1/A disclosed the post-offering count and before pricing (two days before listing) | ~12.5–12.9B (pre-listing outstanding + ~300–500M new shares) | SpaceX: 13.076B from S-1/A amendment 2 |
| xyz | Already a per-share price; no conversion | — | xyz spec sheet |
| Entropy | From 11/3: uses the prospectus figure "Total Class A and Class N Common Stock (As-Converted, Fully Diluted)" directly , excluding the greenshoe and control shares with no economic rights; source is the 424(b) filed before the open, otherwise the last S-1/A. The old list (post-offering outstanding + all options + RSUs + convertible notes in full) applies only if the prospectus prints no total. Added 10/30, convertible notes added 10/31, changed to cite the prospectus total 11/3 | ~16.6–16.8B | Entropy rule text |

**Entropy · Pre-IPO perpetuals, "After an IPO" (added 10/30 UTC+8, convertible notes added 10/31, changed 11/3 12:01 to cite the prospectus total ) Source [12]**

> Source document. The fully diluted share count is taken from the company’s final prospectus (Form 424(b)) if it is filed before the first official opening trade of the listed shares; otherwise from the most recent amended registration statement (S-1/A or equivalent) filed before that time. Fully diluted share count. Where the source document states a total as-converted, fully diluted share count, that figure is used as printed. For Anthropic, that is the “Total Class A and Class N Common Stock (As-Converted, Fully Diluted)” figure in The Offering section. It assumes no exercise of the underwriters’ option to purchase additional shares. Shares with no economic rights (e.g., single control shares) are not counted. If the source document does not state such a total, the count is the sum of the following, as stated in that document: • all shares outstanding immediately after the offering, across every share class • all outstanding stock options, regardless of exercise price; and • all outstanding restricted stock units. • all outstanding convertible securities (such as convertible notes and warrants), counted as the number of shares they convert into at their fixed conversion price, regardless of ownership caps or when they convert. It excludes shares reserved for future grants under equity plans and any shares the company may issue after the IPO. The share count is fixed. … • An estimated fully diluted share count will be published when an S-1/A with an offering price range is filed. The final count will be published as an exact number once set under the source-document rule above, before the first official opening trade. • The oracle switches to Share price × Fully diluted share count ÷ 1,000,000,000 at the first official opening trade of the listed shares on the listing exchange.

11/3 version: the source document is the final 424(b) prospectus if filed before the open, otherwise the last S-1/A before the open. If that document prints an "as-converted, fully diluted" total, it is used as printed ; for Anthropic that is the "Total Class A and Class N Common Stock (As-Converted, Fully Diluted)" figure in The Offering section, excluding the greenshoe and control shares with no economic rights (Class T/F). The list below is used only if no total is printed. An estimated share count is published as soon as the S-1/A with a price range is filed , and the exact number before the open; at the first official opening trade the oracle switches to "share price × share count ÷ 1B". The table already appears on page 21 of the 11/2 S-1/A amendment 1, with the numbers still blank. Its components: post-offering shares outstanding + preferred and convertible note conversion + options ( net, under the treasury stock method : 1.774B as of 9/30 with an average exercise price of $2.91, so at an IPO price of about $100 only about 50M are deducted) + RSUs + RSUs granted after 9/30, rollover notes, acquisition issuances and holdbacks, Pledge issuances, vested matching-program shares, and the Public Benefit Fund initial issuance. Vested matching shares come to only about 20–30M based on the $1.96B matching liability at 9/30, and the acquisition holdback liability is only $70M. Estimated total about 16.6–16.8B (about 16.2–16.4B excluding IPO new shares), essentially the same as the 16.73B from the old list method; the biggest variables are still the number of IPO new shares and whether Google's concurrent purchase is included. Old list (10/30–31 version, now a fallback): the fully diluted count is set from the final prospectus and equals: shares outstanding across all classes after the offering + all outstanding options (regardless of exercise price) + all outstanding RSUs + all outstanding convertible securities (such as convertible notes and warrants), converted at their fixed conversion price, regardless of ownership caps or timing . It excludes reserved shares and shares issued after the IPO. The count is fixed once. The fourth item was added in the early hours of 10/31: Amazon's 1.840B shares of convertible notes (conversion prices $2.09 / $5.05) are counted in full, no longer limited by the 12% ownership cap, which raised Entropy's count from about 15.1B to about 15.9–17.1B, close to the company's own fully diluted 16.937B. The exchanges' basis did not change : OKX and Binance still convert on post-offering shares outstanding, excluding options, RSUs and unconverted convertible notes, so the gap between the two denominators actually widened.

**Anthropic S-1 · Use of proceeds Source [7]**

> We will not receive any proceeds from the sale of shares of Class A common stock by the selling stockholders . The principal purposes of this offering are to increase our capitalization and financial flexibility, create a public market for our Class A common stock, facilitate an orderly distribution of shares for the selling stockholders …

The offering includes sales by existing holders. Secondary sales do not change the total share count, so the only addition under Binance's basis is the company's new issuance, estimated at about 300–500M shares.

## When and how the spread converges

1. S-1/A (with price range) filed , expected in early November: OKX announces within hours and rebases the next day at the disclosed count (expected to be post-offering), and the contract becomes "1 contract = 1 share". At that point OKX is about $128 per share and xyz about $106; the spread remains, but both sides are now in the same unit.
2. After the S-1/A discloses the offering size, before pricing : Binance adjusts the contract size to the post-offering count (for SpaceX, two days before listing).
3. From listing day (expected around 11/20) : all three venues switch to tracking the same Nasdaq stock, and the per-share spread is forced to converge.
4. Entropy takes a different path: it does not change its quoting unit and keeps quoting market cap after listing, with price = share price × fixed share count ÷ 1B. An estimated share count is published as soon as the S-1/A with a price range is filed (Entropy's first repricing point), the exact number before the open, and it does not change after that; at the first official opening trade the oracle switches to "share price × share count ÷ 1B"; in the 3 days before listing, its oracle switches to the 1-hour average of its own mark price. After listing it tracks the same stock as xyz, OKX and Binance, so the spread converges too, just with a conversion factor of 1 unit ≈ 16.7 shares. Rule text

**trade.xyz · Pre-IPO perpetuals documentation Source [2]**

> Conversion occurs after the underlying asset begins regular trading and external market data is sufficient to support standard oracle pricing, typically the first regular session after listing.

Once the underlying starts regular trading, it converts to a standard equity perp, usually on the first regular session after listing.

**OKX · 6/12 announcement: SpaceX converted to a standard equity perpetual Source [10]**

> The exact conversion time depends on when the stock actually begins trading. Trading will not be suspended during the conversion, and your position quantity remains unchanged.

Trading is not halted during the conversion, and position size is unchanged.

**Binance · 6/12 announcement: SpaceX converted to a standard TradFi perpetual Source [11]**

> The mark price smoothing process … may take up to 3 hours … Trading function is not affected during the transition period. Open orders and positions will not be cancelled.

Mark price smoothing takes up to 3 hours; trading is not affected, and orders and positions are not cancelled.

### Actual SpaceX convergence: OKX and Binance per-share deviation vs xyz

Both converted to per share on the final basis: OKX at 12.52B before its 6/2 rebase, Binance scaled by 13.08 ÷ 11.87 ≈ 1.10 before its 6/10 contract size adjustment. After launch, OKX was 2–6% cheaper per share than xyz and Binance about 9% cheaper; after Binance announced the adjustment on the evening of 6/8, it converged within about a day, and once the adjustment was done both were within ±1%; after the 6/12 listing and conversion to regular equity perps, both stayed broadly within ±0.5% (green band).

## Return estimates

Share-matched hedge: for every 1 share bought on xyz, short contracts on OKX or Binance that "equal 1 share after listing" (OKX ≈ 1 ÷ 1.27 contracts per share, Binance ≈ 1 ÷ 12.7 contracts per share, at 12.7B post-offering shares). That way, whatever the share price after listing, the return is fixed at the difference between the two per-share prices. The same applies with the long on Entropy: for every 1 Entropy unit bought (≈ 16.73 shares after listing), short about 13.2 OKX contracts or about 1.32 Binance contracts.

### Locked-in return vs the share count the exchanges actually use

Return = short leg's converted per-share price ÷ long leg's per-share price − 1, based on the long notional, excluding funding and fees. Solid lines are long xyz; dotted lines are long Entropy (at 16.73B shares). Shaded = expected exchange basis range (12.5–12.9B).

### The four combinations (at latest prices)

| Combination | Locked-in return | Entropy at 16.6B | Entropy at 16.8B | Entropy at 16.9B |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short OKX, long Entropy | +23.0% | +22.0% | +23.5% | +24.2% |
| Short Binance, long Entropy | +21.7% | +20.7% | +22.2% | +22.9% |
| Short OKX, long xyz | +20.8% | +20.8% (unaffected) | — | — |
| Short Binance, long xyz | +19.5% | +19.5% (unaffected) | — | — |

OKX and Binance both converted at 12.7B shares (about 12.3B pre-offering + about 400M IPO new shares). Entropy working midpoint 16.73B (old list method) = existing shares 11.59B + Amazon convertible notes 1.84B + options 1.80B + RSUs 1.05B + IPO new shares 0.40B + Google concurrent purchase 0.08B − RSU tax withholding 0.12B + new grants 0.09B. From 11/3 the prospectus total applies instead: options under the treasury stock method are about 50–80M lower, vested matching shares, the Pledge, acquisitions and similar add back about 40–60M, and Google's concurrent purchase may not be included (−80M), giving an estimate of about 16.6–16.8B, essentially the same as 16.73B. The biggest variable is still the number of IPO new shares: every additional 100M adds 100M to Entropy's count as well; 16.9B corresponds to the upper end of 500M new shares. The larger the share count, the higher the return on the Entropy long .

| Share count the exchanges actually use | OKX per share | OKX locked-in return (long xyz) | Binance per share | Binance locked-in return (long xyz) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.3B | $132.46 | +24.7% | $126.91 | +19.5% | Exception: OKX executes on pre-offering shares only (SpaceX-style); Binance still at 12.7B |
| 12.5B | $130.34 | +22.7% | $128.94 | +21.4% | Post-offering basis, low end |
| 12.7B | $128.29 | +20.8% | $126.91 | +19.5% | Post-offering basis, midpoint (same for OKX and Binance) |
| 12.9B | $126.30 | +18.9% | $124.95 | +17.6% | Post-offering basis, high end |
| 15.34B | $106.21 | +0.0% | $105.07 | -1.1% | Break-even (safety margin) |

Safety margin: long xyz only loses money if the exchanges' conversion share count reaches about 15.34B, about 19% above the expected 12.5–12.9B; long Entropy (at 16.7B) only loses at about 15.6B.

### Why share-match rather than hedge 1:1 in dollars: P&L per $100 of xyz long

OKX at 12.7B shares. The CEX is about 20.8% more expensive per share, so the same dollar amount only shorts about 83% of the xyz share count, and the remaining ~17% of the long rides the post-listing share price. With a share-matched hedge, the return is the same whether Anthropic trades at $80 or $190 after listing.

## Common concerns

**Q:Why would the exchanges use post-offering shares outstanding rather than a fully diluted count including options and RSUs?**

Short answer: the exchanges convert so that "1 contract = 1 real share", and after listing the contract price ties directly to the Nasdaq price. A share price only applies to shares that already exist and can trade, so only shares outstanding can be used. ① Rule text. OKX says it does a one-time rebase on the "actual total share count" ( text ); Binance says it adjusts contract size on "the amount disclosed in S-1/A", with no adjustment under 3% ( text ). Across all of both venues' pre-IPO contract announcements and rules, "fully diluted" has never appeared, and options, RSUs or convertible notes have never been mentioned. ② The prospectus defines this number itself. The S-1 sentence "shares outstanding after this offering are based on X Class A and Y Class N shares" is followed directly by an "exclude" list: 1.774B options (average exercise price $2.91), unvested RSUs, RSUs granted after 9/30, shares issued for acquisitions after 9/30, and shares reserved under the incentive and matching plans. The exchanges use the number in that sentence. ③ Real precedents. SpaceX had 492M options and about 150M RSUs; OKX's 12.52B = pre-offering shares outstanding, Binance's 13.08B = shares outstanding + IPO new shares (excl. greenshoe), and neither counted options or RSUs; Oura and Quantinuum were the same ( Section 6 ). ④ Why including them would be wrong. Options and RSUs are "shares that may exist in the future": options only become shares when employees pay to exercise, and RSUs only vest after a service period. Converting on a fully diluted count would make each contract represent less than 1 real share, the contract price would not match the share price on listing day, and the exchange would have to adjust again.

**Q:On 6/30 OKX changed its estimated share count from 1B to 10B. Is that a hint about the real share count?**

No. The announcement states "this rebase is unrelated to the actual share count of OpenAI or Anthropic" ( text ). That rebase was a value-neutral unit change: contracts held × 10, price ÷ 10, with position value and account equity unchanged. The purpose was to make the single-contract price easier to trade (from about $1,700 down to about $170). The same announcement also says: "Once the relevant companies officially file their S-1 … and disclose their actual total share count, OKX will execute a separate, supply-based rebase (so that 1 contract corresponds to 1 share)". What actually determines the conversion is that supply-based rebase , using the actual share count disclosed in the prospectus; the ratio will then be about 12.7B ÷ 10B = 1.27.

**Q:Reports put the valuation at $1.5–2T, and the CEX price of about $1.63T is in that range. Why call the CEXs expensive?**

Short answer: the CEX valuation itself is not unreasonable; the problem is the denominator . The same valuation divided by different share counts can give per-share prices more than 30% apart. ① Valuations in the media and in funding reports are on a fully diluted basis. Series H post-money $965B ÷ $58.90 per share (post-split) = 16.38B shares, close to the company's fully diluted count (16.937B) and far above shares outstanding ( Section 5 ). CEX traders are quoting on this basis too. ② But before listing, CEX contracts are converted to a per-share price using post-offering shares outstanding. $1.63T ÷ 12.7B shares ≈ $128/share; the same valuation divided by the fully diluted ~16.9B is only about $96/share. After listing there is a single real share price, so after conversion the CEX contracts are bound to be more expensive than the real price by this denominator gap, about 33% (16.937 ÷ 12.7). ③ Looking at per-share prices directly is clearer. xyz already quotes per share, currently about $106; the CEXs, after conversion, are about $126–128, 19.5–21% more. This spread has nothing to do with whether the valuation is high or low: whether the listed price is $80 or $190, a share-matched position locks in this difference ( denominator chart ).

**Q:Will OKX use the pre-offering or post-offering count? How much does it matter?**

Base case: post-offering (incl. IPO new shares, about 12.7B), the same as Binance. ① Precedent. SpaceX's first S-1/A with numbers gave only the pre-offering count (12.520B), with the new-share count still blank; OKX announced 2.6 hours later, executed at 12.52B the next day, and made no further adjustment. Oura's S-1/A gave pre-offering, new and post-offering counts all at once, and OKX used the post-offering 321M directly. This shows OKX used pre-offering only because the new-share count had not been disclosed, not because its basis excludes new shares ( Section 6 ). ② This time it will most likely all come at once. In a sample of 33 large US IPOs from 2024–2026, about 30 filled in pre-offering, new and post-offering counts all at once in the S-1/A with the price range; only SpaceX and Waystar disclosed in two steps. ③ The difference. If Anthropic, like SpaceX, first gives only the pre-offering count (about 12.3B) and OKX executes within hours, the locked-in return on short OKX would be about 4 percentage points higher. This deviation favors the short and is not included in this note's base case.

**Q:Is it safe to hold the long on Entropy? Will its rules change again?**

Short answer: Entropy is cheaper per share than xyz and is one of the better places for the long, but it carries three risks xyz does not: rule risk, funding cost, and share-count uncertainty. It suits part of the long, not all of it. ① Rule risk. Entropy issues its own contracts on Hyperliquid and sets its own rules (a HIP-3 deployer). Its listing conversion rule changed three times in one week, each time without an announcement: in the early hours of 10/30 it first added "convert at the fully diluted share count after listing"; at 04:37 on 10/31 it added that convertible notes count in full at their fixed conversion price regardless of ownership caps; at midday on 11/3 it changed to using the prospectus figure "Total Class A and Class N Common Stock (As-Converted, Fully Diluted)" from The Offering section directly, excluding the greenshoe and control shares with no economic rights ( rule text ). The 11/3 version hands the number to the prospectus, leaving Entropy little room to change the basis again. ② Share-count basis. The company's table totals assume full conversion of Amazon's notes, so the "convertible notes excluded" scenario is essentially gone. The remaining uncertainty is the figure in the table: options under the treasury stock method are only about 50M below the full count, and adjustments such as vested matching shares, Pledge issuances and acquisitions add back about 50M; on 9/30 data it is estimated at about 16.6–16.8B, essentially the same as the 16.73B working value. The biggest variable is the number of IPO new shares: every additional 100M shares adds 100M to Entropy's count, which favors the long. Once the S-1/A with a price range is filed, Entropy will publish its estimated share count. ③ Funding. Long Entropy pays ongoing funding, and the more the spread converges, the higher the funding rate; see "Is the funding cost high?" below. In a scenario where the CEXs converge toward xyz, funding may eat most of Entropy's advantage over xyz. ④ Other mechanics. Before listing, Entropy's mark price and oracle are clamped between 300 and 4,200; from 3 calendar days before the announced listing date, the oracle switches to the 1-hour average of the mark price; after the first official opening trade, the oracle switches to "share price × share count ÷ 1B". If there is still no listing by 2028-08-18, it settles under the No-IPO rule.

**Q:Why does Entropy use the fully diluted count, unlike the exchanges?**

Because its contract is quoted on valuation from start to finish. In Entropy's pre-IPO contracts "a price of $1 represents $1B of the company's fully diluted valuation", following the private-market convention of quoting fully diluted valuation. The docs also explain that Hyperliquid does not support scaling a contract by a constant, so after listing it keeps quoting valuation, with price = share price × fixed share count ÷ 1B ( Source [12] ). Since it quotes fully diluted valuation before listing, the only way to transition smoothly after listing is to convert using the fully diluted count; otherwise the price would jump at the moment of listing. OKX's and Binance's contracts also quote valuation before listing, but they rebase to "1 contract = 1 share" and then tie directly to the share price after listing, so they use shares outstanding. Result: one real share corresponds to 1 ÷ 16.73 units on Entropy and 1 contract on the exchanges. The two share-count bases differ by about 4B shares, which is exactly why Entropy is cheap per share and the CEXs are expensive per share.

**Q:Why is only part of Amazon's convertible notes counted in the exchanges' share count?**

First, the conclusion: Amazon's convertible notes are not excluded entirely. The portion that can convert within the 12% ownership cap at listing (about 510M shares) becomes real stock and is already in the exchange basis of about 12.7B. What is excluded is the roughly 1.33B shares above the cap that remain as notes (the prospectus calls them "rollover notes"). There are four reasons: ① Legally it is not stock. The unconverted portion is a debt the company owes Amazon, with no voting or dividend rights, and it cannot be traded. The prospectus says the notes convert up to the cap at listing, and the part that cannot convert "will remain outstanding and will automatically convert … at the end of each fiscal quarter following the completion of this offering", i.e. it stays as notes and converts a further portion at each quarter-end after listing as the cap allows; whatever still cannot convert at maturity is repaid in cash or offset against commercial payments. ② The prospectus's own "shares outstanding after this offering" only counts the portion within the cap. The sentence "shares outstanding after this offering are based on…" lists the items it reflects, including only "the Convertible Notes Conversion", defined as "shares issuable to Amazon … without causing it to exceed the applicable ownership cap ". In the "as-converted, fully diluted" table on page 21, the conversion at listing is listed under "Pro Forma Adjustments", while the rollover notes are listed separately under "Additional Adjustments", together with "RSUs granted after 9/30" and "vested matching-program shares". They are only added when computing the fully diluted figure, which shows that the company itself does not treat them as outstanding stock. ③ Exchange rules and precedents use the "outstanding" basis. Binance adjusts on "the amount disclosed in S-1/A"; OKX rebases on the "actual total share count". In the SpaceX precedent, both venues' numbers matched the prospectus's "outstanding" sentence, and options, RSUs and reserved shares were not counted ( Section 6 ). Unconverted securities are likewise "shares that may exist in the future" and by the same logic will not be counted. Also, the exchanges rebase only once, before listing, while the rollover notes only convert gradually at quarter-ends after listing, so they do not yet exist at the time of the rebase. ④ From a contract design standpoint, counting them would be wrong. The rebase exists to make "1 contract = 1 real share", so the contract price ties directly to the share price after listing. Counting the 1.3B unconverted shares would make each contract represent less than 1 share, the price would not match after listing, and another adjustment would be needed. Compare Entropy: Entropy uses the fully diluted basis, and its rule explicitly counts convertible notes in full "regardless of ownership caps". So the same 1.33B shares are counted by Entropy but not by the exchanges, which is one source of the roughly 4B gap between the two bases.

**Q:Could Amazon waive the 12% ownership cap before listing?**

The prospectus says "unless Amazon elects in its sole discretion to waive the limitation", so Amazon does have that right. If it waived, 1.33B shares would become real stock at listing, and the exchange basis would jump from about 12.7B to about 14.0B. This is the largest single risk on the short side. We judge the probability to be low (under 10%) , for the reasons below; the first two come from the prospectus text, the last two are inferences: ① Amazon has never waived it so far. From the prospectus: "The portion of each note that could not convert without exceeding this ownership cap was reissued as a rollover note ". Every past conversion reissued the portion above the cap as a rollover note rather than converting it to stock. The existence of rollover notes itself shows that Amazon chose not to waive at every previous opportunity. The conversion terms at the IPO are identical. ② Waiving the cap gives Amazon no economic benefit. The conversion prices are fixed at $2.09 and $5.05, far below the IPO price, so converting early or late yields the same number of shares and the same upside. After listing, the remainder converts automatically within the cap at each quarter-end, and since total share capital keeps growing after listing (new shares, employee stock and so on), the 12% allowance grows with it; whatever still cannot convert at maturity is repaid in cash or offset against commercial payments. For Amazon this arrangement has no downside. In addition, large holders usually face a lock-up after the IPO, so converting early buys no liquidity; and the shares received are non-voting Class N, so it buys no control either. ③ It would invite unnecessary regulatory trouble (inference). The US FTC's 6(b) study of Big Tech AI investments in early 2025 covered the Amazon–Anthropic partnership. When the UK CMA reviewed the partnership in 2024, it found that Amazon had no material influence over Anthropic and therefore cleared it as not a merger. Voluntarily raising its stake above 12% would signal to regulators that it wants more influence and could reopen scrutiny. The 12% line was very likely designed for this reason. ④ Both sides likely prefer the status quo on governance (inference). Anthropic is a public benefit corporation whose board is controlled by the Long-Term Benefit Trust. Issuing non-voting Class N shares to strategic partners and setting ownership caps are both meant to keep large holders as financial investors. Waiving the cap is Amazon's unilateral right, but the two have a large compute partnership, and breaking the default arrangement at the IPO would do the relationship no good. If it does happen, we will see it in advance. A waiver has to be decided at the conversion before listing, and would show up directly in the numbers in the next S-1/A: the amount on the "Convertible Notes Conversion" line would be noticeably larger, or "shares outstanding after this offering" would exceed about 12.3B plus new shares by more than 1B, or wording such as "waive" would appear. The exchanges only rebase after seeing that S-1/A, so the market would see it first. Even if it happened, with an exchange basis of about 14.0B the short-side return would be about 12 percentage points lower, still inside the break-even point (about 15.3B).

**Q:Will Google's concurrent purchase be counted in the exchanges' share count?**

The prospectus says Google may elect to buy up to $10B of Class N shares at the IPO price, completed concurrently with the IPO; if exercised, it reduces the note capacity available under the "Google 2026 NPA" accordingly. Whether it is counted: no source says so yet. If it closes concurrently with the IPO, the prospectus's "shares outstanding after this offering" will likely include it, since it will be real stock by then. At a price of about $100–110, that is about 90–100M shares. Impact: about 100M more shares in the exchange basis, about 0.9 percentage points less locked-in return on the short side; whether it is counted in Entropy's basis depends on whether The Offering table includes it. The magnitude is small and does not change the conclusion. The next S-1/A will show which line it sits on.

**Q:What uncertainty remains after the S-1/A is filed, and how large is each item?**

The pre-listing outstanding portion (about 10.73B as of 9/30 + 847M Public Benefit Fund + about 510M Amazon conversion within the cap + net RSUs) is essentially fixed in the S-1/A. The remaining variables, ranked by their effect on the exchange basis (the short side): IPO new shares: the biggest variable. Reports say the raise may match or exceed SpaceX's $86.2B, and the WSJ reported "over $100B", including sales by existing holders (including co-founders); the split between new and secondary shares has not been disclosed. Every additional 100M new shares adds 100M to the exchange basis and lowers the short-side return by about 0.9 percentage points; this note uses 400M, with a scenario range of 400M–1B. Google concurrent purchase: about 90–100M shares; see the previous item. Whether Amazon waives the cap: low probability but the largest impact (about +1.3B shares); see two items above. RSU tax withholding rate: RSUs vesting at listing are counted net of tax; a withholding rate of 30% instead of 40% would add tens of millions of shares. Options exercised before listing: these move from options to outstanding, possibly tens of millions to 100M shares. Whether OKX uses pre-offering or post-offering: if pre-offering, short OKX gains about 4 percentage points; see the item above. Taken together, the exchange basis realistically lands around 12.5–13.5B; break-even is about 15.3B (long xyz) and about 15.6B (long Entropy), leaving a wide margin. The only way to approach that line is "Amazon waives the cap + far more new shares than expected" happening together.

**Q:Is the funding cost high?**

Low on the short side and for long xyz; not low for long Entropy, and it rises as the spread converges. ① Short side and xyz. Binance is about +0.005%/8h (received by shorts, about 5.5% annualized), OKX about 0. xyz's pre-IPO funding rate multiplier is only 0.005 (1% of normal), so the long's cost is close to 0. ② How Entropy's funding rate is computed. It settles hourly, = 0.125 × the standard Hyperliquid formula (hourly average premium, plus an interest term clamped at ±0.05%). The premium is measured on the "impact price" relative to the oracle, and the oracle = 95% × internal price (5-minute average of the order-book mid) + 5% × external price. So the premium has two components: Internal price lag: when io rises quickly, the book price is clearly above the 5-minute average and the premium can spike to about 1%; on the way down it goes negative. This part is symmetric and averages close to 0 over time, but it makes individual hourly funding very volatile (annualized rates from 14% to 60% have appeared within the same day). External price anchor: about 5% × (io ÷ external price − 1). This is the persistent part and determines the long-run cost. ③ What the external price is. Entropy's docs only say it is a weighted aggregate of private-market data, with undisclosed sources. Backing it out from 8 days / 183 hours of data and tick data, the external price is almost exactly Binance's valuation quote (deviation about 0.1%, volatility about 0.06%), roughly 90% Binance + 10% OKX. ④ Key inference: the closer to convergence, the higher the funding. After listing io converts at about 16.73B shares, while Binance's and OKX's valuation quotes convert at 12.7B shares, a structural gap of about 32%. Right now the CEXs are about 20% more expensive per share than io, offsetting most of that gap. For every 1 percentage point the CEXs converge toward the real share price, the external price falls about 1%, io's premium over the external price rises, and annualized funding rises by about 6 percentage points: Remaining spread (CEX per-share premium over io) io above external price Annualized funding (model) ~20% (11/3) ~7–8% ~40–50% 10% ~20% ~120% 5% ~25% ~160% 0% ~32% ~200% ⑤ As a cost. About two weeks remain until the oracle switch (3 days before the announced listing date). On notional: if the CEX spread holds the whole time, about 1.4%; if it converges all at once at the next S-1/A, about 4.4%; with linear convergence, about 3.9%. Meanwhile, Entropy's per-share advantage over xyz moves between about 2–4% with the market. So on the base-case convergence path, the extra advantage of long Entropy may be eaten by funding. A more conservative approach: when Entropy becomes more expensive relative to xyz (its discount narrows), switch the Entropy long back to xyz. ⑥ When it ends. From 3 calendar days before the announced listing date, the oracle switches to the 1-hour average of the mark price, the external price drops out, and funding falls back to near 0. If the listing date is announced late, the high funding lasts longer.

**Q:How should margin and liquidation risk be handled?**

① Volatility. Daily moves of 5–10% are common in pre-IPO contracts. The two legs are on different venues, so one side shows an unrealized gain and the other an unrealized loss; the losing side needs enough margin on its own and cannot rely on the gain to offset it. We suggest under 3× leverage on both sides, with margin to absorb an adverse move of 30% or more. ② An exchange rebase changes the tier. OKX tiers by number of contracts held, and the maintenance margin rate is set by the tier of the whole position. At the rebase the contract count is multiplied by about 1.27, so the same position may be pushed into a higher tier and the maintenance margin rate rises with it. For larger positions, split across several sub-accounts, each tiered separately. Binance uses progressive tiers with a deduction per tier, so the effect is smaller. ③ Rebase-day details. Per OKX's rebase announcement: take-profit and stop-loss orders are cancelled and not kept; unrealized P&L is settled into realized; after execution there is a post-only period, with its length set by OKX depending on liquidity. Do not rely on stop orders around the rebase. ④ One-sided risk. With a share-matched hedge the position is broadly neutral to the share price, but if the two legs fill out of sync there is brief one-sided exposure; building in slices and executing both sides together keeps it within one slice.

**Q:What if the listing is delayed or withdrawn?**

This is the risk with the longest holding period. Each venue handles it differently: trade.xyz: if there is still no listing by 2027-01-19, the grace period ends and it cash-settles at the time-weighted average price over the whole period ( timeline ). Entropy: if the listing is delayed or withdrawn, it keeps running on the pre-listing method; if there is still no listing by 2028-08-18, it settles under the No-IPO rule. OKX, Binance: no explicit long-term rule has been published; the contracts are expected to keep trading, but the share-count conversion would remain unresolved. A delay does not make the spread disappear, but it lengthens the holding period, during which you bear funding, margin usage and the risk of rule changes on each venue. If an IPO withdrawal is announced, CEX prices could swing sharply, the conversion logic would lose its basis, and the position would no longer be a locked-in return. With the S-1/A already publicly filed and the roadshow reportedly starting the week of 11/9, this risk is low, but RW (withdrawal) filings on EDGAR are worth watching.

## Risks that actually exist

- Med Listing delayed or cancelled. xyz's expected listing date is 2026-11-20 with a grace period to 2027-01-19; if there is still no listing by then, it settles at the TWAP over the full period since launch. OKX's text: if the IPO is cancelled or delayed, "OKX reserves the right to delist the contract and settle it at a fair value price". In that case the settlement prices on each venue will not necessarily line up. However, Anthropic has already publicly filed its S-1, and media reports put the roadshow in the week of 11/9 and the listing before Thanksgiving on 11/26.

- Med Volatility and margin before convergence. Long and short are on different venues, and each side's margin must be managed separately. Pre-listing prices can be very volatile (xyz's spec allows moves within ±50% of the $125 initial price), so each side needs an ample liquidation buffer.

- Low Number of IPO new shares. OKX and Binance are both expected to use the post-offering count including IPO new shares; the more new shares, the smaller the short-side spread. At an estimated 400M, long xyz returns about 19.5–21%; every additional 100M new shares lowers it by about 0.9 percentage points.

- Low Liquidity and position limits. Open interest in ANT on OKX is only about $7.45M (11/2), and the book is thin. OKX caps each user's position at max($250K, 30% of total platform open interest). Large size needs to be worked in slices with resting orders (see chart below).

- Low Entropy funding and liquidity. Entropy longs currently pay funding of about 20–26% annualized, about 1% of notional over the 2–3 weeks to listing (falling to near 0 in the last 3 days before listing); the ask side is thin, so large buys need to be worked in slices. Open interest is about $89.7M; the OI cap was raised from $85M to $100M on 11/1 and to $110M on 11/3. In the 3 days before listing its oracle looks only at the 1-hour average of its own mark price, so wicks are possible. Also, if the listing is delayed, Entropy keeps trading on its pre-listing method, unlike xyz (TWAP settlement after the deadline) or OKX (possible delisting at fair value).

### Open interest (OI) by venue

Hourly, last 7 days. xyz OI grew about 160% in the two days after its 10/27 launch; OKX is the smallest market.

## Timeline: the path SpaceX took, and where Anthropic is on it

Times in UTC+8; the Anthropic column is based on media reports.

| Stage | SpaceX (completed, UTC+8) | Anthropic |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-IPO contracts launched | 5/7 · 5/21 OKX launched (assumed 1B shares); Binance launched (assumed 11.87B shares) | 5/7 · 6/2 · 10/26 OKX (1B shares, changed to 10B on 6/30), Binance (1B shares), xyz launched |
| Public S-1 | 5/21 04:40 Public S-1 | 10/26 Public S-1, share counts blank |
| S-1/A discloses pre-listing shares outstanding | 6/1 19:02 S-1/A amendment 1: 12.520B outstanding, offering size still blank | Early November (expected) S-1/A: shares outstanding + price range |
| OKX rebase | Announced 6/1 → 6/2 15:10 Executed at 12.52B, about 20 hours after the S-1/A, with no further adjustment | Announced within hours of the S-1/A, executed the next day Expected at the post-offering count (about 12.5–12.9B, same as Binance); if the first S-1/A gives only pre-offering, possibly first at about 12.1–12.5B |
| S-1/A discloses offering size | 6/4 04:30 S-1/A amendment 2: 13.076B post-offering (13.159B with greenshoe) | TBD May be the same filing as the row above |
| Roadshow | 6/4 – 6/9 Roadshow materials filed over several days | From the week of 11/9 (reported) Roadshow |
| Binance contract size adjustment | Announced 6/8 → 6/10 16:30 Executed at 13.08B, factor 1.10; two days before listing, before pricing | Before pricing (expected) At the post-offering count (about 12.5–12.9B) |
| Pricing, effectiveness | Early 6/12 – 12:15 Priced at $135; SEC declared effective | Mid-to-late November Pricing |
| Listing, contract conversion | From 6/12 21:30 Nasdaq open; OKX converted 21:00 to 02:00 the next day, Binance from 6/13 00:15; after that the three venues stayed broadly within ±0.5% | Around 11/20, before 11/26 (reported) Spread converges |
| Entropy conversion rule | — | 10/30 00:11 · 10/31 04:37 · 11/3 12:01 Added "convert at the fully diluted share count after listing"; added convertible notes counted in full at their fixed conversion price (neither announced). On 11/3 12:01 changed to using the prospectus fully diluted total directly; an estimated share count is published as soon as the S-1/A with a price range is filed, and the exact number before the open |
| No listing by deadline | — | 2027-01-19 xyz grace period ends; settles at the full-period TWAP |

## Source documents and data

1. trade.xyz Pre-IPO specification index: docs.trade.xyz/…/pre-ipo-specification-index
2. trade.xyz Pre-IPO perpetuals documentation: docs.trade.xyz/…/pre-ipo-perpetuals ; settlement rules if not listed: alternative-settlement-events
3. OKX Pre-IPO perpetual product rules: okx.com/help/pre-ipo-perpetual-futures
4. OKX 6/30 rebase announcement (1B → 10B): okx.com/help/okx-to-execute-rebase-on-openaiusdt-and-anthropicusdt-…
5. Binance ANTHROPICUSDT listing announcement: binance.com/…/2b9ff1e1acf8433793bc40c59a0cb852
6. Binance pre-IPO contract pricing FAQ: binance.com/…/87bf29a506b647159fc6ace70d38f252 ; contract size adjustment FAQ: 789d3d23b87a45f2971ae046d73f5f88
7. Anthropic S-1 (2026-10-26): sec.gov/…/anthropicpbc-sx1.htm ; all filings: CIK 2130357
8. OKX SpaceX rebase announcement (12.52B): okx.com/help/okx-to-execute-rebase-on-spacexusdt-…
9. Binance SpaceX contract size adjustment announcement (13.08B): binance.com/…/d3b53297a27046bd979968c2123d71e0
10. OKX SpaceX conversion to standard equity perpetual: okx.com/help/okx-to-convert-spcxusdt-…
11. Binance SpaceX conversion to standard perpetual: binance.com/…/8ad8bd3442964b3c90e67ee3de96ec0e
12. Entropy Pre-IPO perpetuals (post-listing fully diluted conversion rule added 10/30 UTC+8; convertible notes counted in full at fixed conversion price added 10/31; changed 11/3 to use the prospectus "Total Class A and Class N Common Stock (As-Converted, Fully Diluted)"): docs.entropy.io/market-types/pre-ipo-perpetuals
13. SpaceX S-1 (2026-05-20): sec.gov/…/1181412/000162828026036936
14. SpaceX S-1/A amendment 1 (2026-06-01, first disclosure of shares outstanding): sec.gov/…/1181412/000162828026039276
15. SpaceX S-1/A amendment 2 (2026-06-03, disclosure of IPO new shares and post-offering count): sec.gov/…/1181412/000162828026040364
16. SpaceX final prospectus 424B4 (2026-06-12): sec.gov/…/1181412/000162828026042639
17. Oura S-1/A (2026-09-21, 320,945,459 shares post-offering): sec.gov/…/2133022/000119312526396051 ; OKX listing announcement: okx.com/help/okx-to-list-pre-ipo-…-oura-usdt ; Binance listing announcement: binance.com/…/8bd2b3a7684749bba472e71fc3ad8043
18. Quantinuum: Binance listing announcement (253.9M shares) binance.com/…/3bdaff694bde45ccb443709336c8686d ; conversion to regular perpetual binance.com/…/2d70d8d34f474c6692a110388c32eff8 ; S-1/A amendment 1 sec.gov/…/000162828026037917 ; 424B4 sec.gov/…/000162828026041003
19. Price and OI data: public market data APIs from Hyperliquid, OKX and Binance (hourly / daily).